2018 | OECD | Risk of Job Automation

Category: Research Study

Industry: Employment

Location: Global

Related to: Automation / Future of Urban Living / Employment / Machine Learning / Careers

Reviewer: Logan Kurtz Larkin / BFA Parsons School of Design

Company: OECD

Website: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/fr/employment/automation-skills-use-and-training_2e2f4eea-en

About:

Recently the OECD published a study that builds on the expert assessment made by Carl Frey and Michael Osborne in 2013. This study estimates the risk of automation and the advancement of machine learning in over 32 countries in which the information has been gathered by participants of the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC). In addition to the jobs that are most likely to be disrupted by automation of production and services, the study contrasts the characteristics of the jobs and the characteristics of the workers that hold them.

In the study in 2013, Frey and Osborne shocked analysts by starting a debate that estimated the number of jobs in the United States that could be automated to be 47%. Taking into consideration of ‘bottlenecks’, or elements that are difficult to automate, i.e. complex reasoning, social interaction, and cultural sensitivities; analysts were able to eliminate certain jobs that were not at risk of automation.

This study not only analyses what jobs are at high risk of automation but creates a form for how jobs will evolve due to new technologies. The study finds that over 14% of the jobs in the OECD’s 32 countries are highly automatable and 70% likely to be automated (66 million workers). In addition, the risk of automation is the highest amongst teenage jobs. However, this may provide an opportunity for a smoother transition for younger workers to transition into jobs that are becoming increasingly difficult for older generations due to technology.

In response, jobs that are less automatable have become more intensive in order to match the pace of technology. The amount of training required for a certain job also lowers the risk of automation.

There is also a positive outlook for automation in the industry as it may provide more technological advancements that amplify social and economic impact.

Overall, the OECD’s study provides more than analysis on the risk of job automation but provides a counter with an abstract that discusses technological possibilities and how automation may provide the ability for increased specialization.